Brexit and Culture Wars Amplify Political Divide among Labour and Tory Voters

Analysis by Professor John Curtice from the National Centre of Social Research reveals how Brexit and culture war issues are deepening the rift between Labour and Tory voters. The intensifying divide is driven by contrasting views on identity, morality, transgender rights, and pride in Britain, reshaping political preferences beyond traditional left-right divides.

Brexit and Culture Wars Further Polarizing Labour and Tory Voters

Analysis by Professor John Curtice, a leading pollster from the National Centre of Social Research (NatCen), indicates that Brexit and culture war issues are deeply intensifying the divide between Labour and Tory voters. The findings highlight a growing political gap stemming from attitudes on identity and morality issues, as well as pride in Britain.

Immediately post-Brexit referendum, Leave voters were more than twice as likely to support the Conservatives compared to Remain voters. This preference has now increased to three times as likely, as revealed in NatCen's latest report. Additionally, opinions on the rights of transgender individuals have increasingly influenced voting preferences. The British Social Attitudes survey shows a significant political rift on whether transgender people should be able to change the sex recorded on their birth certificates.

The report highlights that those opposing such changes in transgender rights are 25 percentage points more likely to vote Conservative, Reform, or UKIP. Curtice noted that issues of culture and identity are now as crucial as traditional left-right divides in political contests.

Furthermore, NatCen's annual survey shows shifting public perspectives on immigration since the UK's new post-Brexit points-based visa system was implemented in 2021. Despite a rise in net migration, mostly from India, Nigeria, and China, favourable attitudes towards immigration have decreased. Those who believe migrants benefit the economy dropped from 51% in 2021 to 40% in 2024.

The survey also reveals that only 24% of the population now agree that transgender individuals should be allowed to change their sex on birth certificates, a significant fall from 58% in 2016. This change aligns with broader shifts in societal attitudes towards transgender rights, with 47% of the public feeling that trans rights have gone too far, compared to 33% in 2021.

NatCen's interim chief executive, Gillian Prior, noted that these issues now significantly divide both society and political affiliations, making them central to the ongoing general election campaign.