Donald Tusk is poised to lead a new government in Poland, marking a shift after eight years of rule by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. Exit polls indicate Tusk’s potential leadership could result in significant changes in Poland’s domestic and foreign policies, although his efforts may be constrained by the PiS-aligned President Andrzej Duda, whose term runs until 2025.
A Tusk-led administration is likely to improve relations with the European Union, reversing the strained ties under PiS, which led to the freezing of substantial EU funds earmarked for Poland over rule of law concerns. Tusk’s tenure as President of the European Council is expected to facilitate smoother interactions with EU partners.
Domestically, a new government may attempt to depoliticize the judiciary, a key issue during the campaign, despite the challenges posed by existing PiS appointees in the constitutional court. Changes in women’s rights are also anticipated, with Tusk advocating for the relaxation of Poland’s strict abortion laws, though consensus within a potential coalition remains uncertain.
LGBTQ+ rights could see advancements as Tusk proposes the introduction of same-sex civil partnerships, a contentious issue among conservative factions within Poland. On the international front, Tusk’s administration would aim to sustain support for Ukraine, aligning with Poland's historical stance despite some recent rhetoric shifts by PiS amid rising "Ukraine fatigue."
In summary, if exit polls hold true, Poland under Donald Tusk could experience significant policy shifts domestically and in its European engagements, though opposition and existing political structures may pose challenges.