New US survey data shows a sharp fall in lesbian, gay and bisexual identification among ninth-grade girls, but researchers caution that the figures don't explain whether identities are changing, disclosure is shifting, or social pressures are influencing answers.

Essential Takeaways

  • The biggest change: LGB identification among ninth-grade girls fell from 30% in 2021 to 17% in 2025.
  • A wider dip: Among girls overall, identification dropped from 27% in 2023 to 22% in 2025.
  • The data is limited: The clearest decline appears among younger girls, rather than across every age group.
  • Several explanations remain possible: Changing identity, reluctance to disclose, and a more hostile political climate could all play a part.
  • Researchers want more evidence: One survey can't establish why the numbers moved.

A striking shift among younger girls

The headline figure is hard to miss. According to analysis of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behaviour Survey, the share of ninth-grade girls identifying as lesbian, gay or bisexual dropped from 30% in 2021 to 17% in 2025. Other reports reviewing the same data have highlighted that this was the most pronounced change in the survey. [2], [3]

That doesn't mean 13% of girls have suddenly changed their sexuality. It means the proportion selecting an LGB identity in this particular survey fell by 13 percentage points. That distinction matters, especially when the numbers are being used to support sweeping claims about an entire generation. [4], [5]

The shift is also concentrated. Among girls overall, LGB identification declined from 27% in 2023 to 22% in 2025, while the movement among boys was smaller. Older girls showed far less change than those in Year 9, making age one of the most important clues in the data. [6], [7]

The figures don't come with an explanation

Survey results can tell us what respondents selected, but not necessarily why they selected it. A young person might use a different label over time, decide not to disclose an identity, or interpret the question differently at different stages of adolescence. [2], [3]

Psychologist Jean M. Twenge, who examined the CDC figures, has described the reversal as unusual because earlier trends had generally pointed towards more same-sex attraction, relationships and identification. Even so, she has stressed that the reason for the sharp fall among ninth-grade girls remains unclear. [4], [6]

That uncertainty hasn't stopped people drawing firm conclusions. Some conservative commentators have portrayed the decline as evidence that queer identities were merely a social trend, while LGBTQ+ advocates and researchers have suggested that anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric could make teenagers less comfortable identifying openly. Neither interpretation is established by the survey alone. [5], [7]

Why ninth grade may be the key

The age pattern is the most intriguing part of the story. Identification among 12th-grade girls was broadly stable across the period, while the fall among ninth-grade girls was much larger. That could point to a genuine difference between younger and older teenagers, or to a temporary feature of the 2025 cohort. [2], [4]

Researcher Andrew Flores has cautioned that the result is difficult to interpret because the decline is so heavily concentrated in one group. If ninth-grade girls account for much of the wider movement, the overall figures may look more dramatic than the changes experienced by older pupils. [3], [6]

Adolescence is hardly a static period. Labels, relationships and self-understanding can shift, and sexuality may be more fluid for some young people than for others. That doesn't make an identity less real; it simply means a single survey snapshot can capture a moment, rather than a permanent destination. [4], [7]

A changed political climate may matter

The survey was conducted during a period of intense debate around LGBTQ+ rights, education and gender. Public arguments over inclusion programmes, school policies and transgender rights can affect how safe young people feel discussing personal subjects, even when a question is anonymous. [2], [5]

There are competing possibilities here. A more conservative climate might encourage some pupils to choose heterosexual rather than queer labels, but it could also prompt others to identify more openly as an act of solidarity or self-definition. The direction isn't automatic, which is precisely why researchers are resisting neat political explanations. [3], [7]

The CDC survey also did not ask respondents about gender identity in this cycle. That limits the wider picture, particularly when sexuality and gender are being discussed together in public debate. It leaves researchers with useful evidence, but not a complete map of teenagers' experiences. [4], [6]

What should happen next?

The sensible response is to watch the trend rather than declare victory for one side of the culture war. Researchers will need to compare future survey waves, examine age and cohort effects, and consider whether changes in wording, participation or social context influenced responses. [2], [3]

It would also help to pair national survey data with qualitative research, where teenagers can explain how they understand labels and whether they feel comfortable using them. Numbers can reveal a pattern, but conversations often show what sits underneath it. [6], [7]

For now, the most responsible conclusion is also the least dramatic: fewer ninth-grade girls selected an LGB identity in the latest figures, and nobody yet knows exactly why. In a charged moment, that may sound unsatisfying, but it is the honest answer.

A single data point can start a conversation, but it can't finish one.

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