Over the past decade, tracking the number of Americans who identify as transgender has become increasingly viable, thanks largely to federal data initiatives. In 2014, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) incorporated gender identity questions into the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), marking a significant step forward in collecting reliable demographic information about transgender individuals. Subsequent inclusion of such questions in other federal surveys like the National Crime Victimization Survey has further enhanced researchers’ ability to understand the size and characteristics of this population. According to a recent analysis drawing from these data sources, approximately 2.1 million U.S. adults identify as transgender, with an additional 724,000 youths aged 13 to 17 identifying similarly. These estimates are crucial for shaping public policies, legal decisions, and societal understanding, including matters such as nondiscrimination laws and transgender individuals' access to public facilities. Notably, the U.S. Supreme Court has referenced these figures in rulings impacting transgender rights.
Yet, this progress faces a profound challenge. Under directives from the Trump administration, federal surveys have discontinued collecting data on gender identity, reverting to binary sex questions limited to 'male' or 'female' options. This rollback effectively erases the comprehensive data infrastructure that has enabled the estimation and analysis of the U.S. transgender population. Experts warn that it could be at least a decade before updated and reliable data on this demographic can be gathered again should policy priorities shift in the future. This hiatus poses serious risks, limiting the ability of researchers, policymakers, and advocates to monitor trends, assess the impact of policies such as gender-affirming care bans, and address the specific needs of transgender individuals.
Age remains a pivotal factor in transgender identification patterns, with younger cohorts more likely to identify as transgender than their older counterparts. The latest report shows a marked increase in identification among adults aged 18 to 24, rising to 2.7% from previous estimates of 0.7%. However, this does not indicate a sudden 'surge' in transgender youth but reflects evolving social acceptance and generational shifts in openness around gender identity. Data suggests that young people are also more likely to disclose their transgender identity on surveys, meaning older adults might be underrepresented in current statistics. As these younger generations age, researchers expect these age-based disparities to diminish.
The removal of federal gender identity questions is part of a broader, politically driven effort to erase 'gender ideology' from government programs. Since early 2025, agencies including the CDC have deleted public data pages related to HIV statistics, gender identity, and diversity, complying with executive orders that recognize only male and female sex. This action has alarmed health professionals and researchers, who emphasise that the loss of these data undermines the capacity to monitor health disparities and social outcomes among vulnerable groups, including transgender individuals. Washington-based researchers have described the sudden data deletions as a 'mad scramble,' raising fears about the future integrity and availability of critical health and demographic information.
These developments happen against a backdrop of legal and political contention. Policies restricting the collection of gender identity data and defunding of gender-affirming care have faced court challenges and public outcry from LGBTQ+ advocacy groups, underscoring the ongoing struggle over recognition and rights. Data previously collected also reveals the disproportionate victimization rates faced by transgender people, highlighting the importance of maintaining robust data to inform protective legislation and interventions.
Despite these setbacks, the transgender population remains a visible and vital part of American society, continuing to live, work, and participate across communities nationwide. However, without renewed commitment to inclusive data practices, efforts to understand and support this community will be severely hampered, compromising progress toward equity and respect. Source: Noah Wire Services